What does it really mean when rain is 70% likely?
Weather's Dice Roll
What does it really mean when rain is 70% likely?
You check your weather app. "70% chance of rain today." Does that mean it'll rain for 70% of the day? That 70% of your town will get wet? Or that the weather experts are only 70% sure? Actually, it's stranger and more interesting than any of those guesses.
Here's what that number really means. Imagine the weather service runs the exact same day 100 times — same clouds, same wind, same temperature, everything. In 70 of those 100 identical days, rain falls at your location. In the other 30, it stays dry.
